NFL Football Betting: Early Movement on Super Bowl Betting

Now we all know that the lines are going to move on a Super Bowl game. I mean the number is put up a full 2 weeks before the game is even played. What's been so telling about this year's game is how far the line moved in the very early stages of being released.
If you're familiar with my betting systems at all, you know I place a high premium on WHEN you get your line. I feel that you need to be betting the 'true' number if you want to ensure that you're betting the game when you should. Well, what's the true number?
I worked at an offshore sportsbook for 8 years and sometimes the opener can be a 'false'
opener. What I mean by that is, they release a number, the sharp players bang it up and when the dust settles that's your 'real' number. This is the number the game stays on most of the week for NFL and for most of the day for MLB and NBA (barring an injury or suspension etc.). I also tend to disregard the last hour flurry that happens as well. This is more driven by the public at large and we don't put much stock in what they think.
So what happened with the matchup between the Saints and the Colts? Well the first click was Sunday night at 10:17 PM EST, just after the Vikings-Saints game was completed. Both CRIS and Pinnacle posted the game Indianapolis -3.5. By 10:18 it moved to -4 and that's when another highly respected offshore outfit, Olympic, came out with its opener of -4 as well.
Within 5 minutes, Olympic was up to 4.5. Pinnacle and CRIS were right behind them. At 10:56 Olympic was already up to -5. So in less than 45 minutes the game has moved over and through one of the key numbers in the football betting world, 4. Just after midnight CRIS moved to 5.5 and by Monday afternoon Olympic and Pinnacle were both there as well.
Olympic tested the waters at -6 on Monday, right at 7:03 PM. That lasted all of eight minutes before they went back to 5.5. So what's the deal, is 5.5 the 'real' number, the pointspread this game stays on most of the week?
Well, we're still 11 days away from game day so it's WAY too early to tell. But you can get an indication of how the sharps feel about this game: a full 2 point move in less than 24 hours? You don't see that very often, especially on a game with this much importance. Bookmakers can lose their shirt on the Super Bowl, especially if they get middled.
Here's my prediction: Indy minus 6 will be the real number. It's already 2 to 1 in favor of bets on Indianapolis and we have a lot of time to go. I don't see it getting up to a touchdown however.
Thanks,
Rich Allen, aka Sports Betting Professor

Article Source: http://gamblingarticlessite.com

Rich Allen is owner of the Sports Betting Professor website www.sportsbettingprofessor.com. 2 years ago he hired an actual PhD Statistician to develop a quantitative system to win consistently betting on American Football, NBA Basketball, College Football and Major League Baseball. His results have been stellar. The Average Guy, Can Learn The Secrets Of His Sports Betting System And Propel To Unthinkable Winnings For Life!"

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