The Disappearing Home Field Advantage in the NFL

A short time ago, noted ESPN columnist Bill Simmons pointed out a curious fact: NFL Home teams are winning at a much lower rate than before. From 1990-1999, home teams won at a rate of 59.6%. From 2000-2009, the win rate was down to 57%, a statisticallysignificant decline in winning percentage. During the same period, playoff win percentage was down from 74% to 57%, a huge drop.

Simmons credits sterile new stadiums that disenfranchise the lower paying yet louder cheering fans. He does make a point. According to Forbes’ Magazine, the Washington Redskins are the most profitable team in the NFL and that is directly related to the number of luxury suites in their stadium. Washington is a terrible team and their stadium is quiet and expensive - what Simmons would argue is a microcosm of the modern NFL.
Much more notably for NFL bettors, they should realize that Home teams only win at a 47% rate against the spread. That means, you could actually bet and cover the juice simply by betting away teams against the spread… Wow, that is a huge development. Seemingly the linesmakers haven’t picked up on this trend so take advantage while it lasts. More importantly, make sure you have the discipline to bet by the numbers. Simmons, who had a losing record against the spread over the period he analyzed will hopefully listen to his own advice. While it is essential to analyze spreads, numbers, injuries and the teams playing a game, it is most important to have dicipline. If you analyze numbers and discover a method that works - then you stick with that system, you win money betting over the long term.

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Rich Allen is owner of the Sports Betting Professor website www.sportsbettingprofessor.com. 2 years ago he hired an actual PhD Statistician to develop a quantitative system to win consistently betting on American Football, NBA Basketball, College Football and Major League Baseball. His results have been stellar. The Average Guy, Can Learn The Secrets Of His Sports Betting System And Propel To Unthinkable Winnings For Life!"

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